Crucket

Adelaide is another big bat-first ground. Or maybe, I’m looking at this wrong. Maybe it’s the fact that Australia prefer batting first that makes all the Australian grounds look like bat-first paradises. Anyway. Win the toss and bat is the best option at Adelaide and against Australia in general.

Of course, win the toss and field is the best option for us, so…

What to do?

I’ve run some numbers, accounting for 1. our ability to chase and set targets, 2. Australia’s ability to set and chase, 3. Adelaide’s assistance for chasing and setting and 4. whether the toss was won or lost. I’m taking data for NZ and Australia only for the last 5 years to capture how we have both been playing recently.

My analysis shows that we must win the toss.

If Australia win the toss they will surely bat. Our ability to chase targets when the opposition has won the toss is poor and it is the worst situation to be in at Adelaide. Under this circustance I reckon we have about a 10% chance of winning. Incidentally, in the last 5 years Aus have never lost winning the toss and chasing. So we must win this toss.

In the last 5 years, we have won nearly 4 times as many games as we have lost by winning the toss and chasing. This counteracts both the Aus strength in setting targets and Adelaide’s assistance for batting first. If we win the toss and chase, it’s pretty much an even chance of a win.

The last of the possibilities, we win the toss and bat, gives us about a 40% chance of winning. Advantage Australia, but still a good contest.