Expectations
New Zealand’s run chase is now 5 balls old. Looking good. Playing safe. Not many runs though.
So the target is 617, with 5 1/2 sessions to play. Ignoring rain as a factor, as it is too random, the big question remaining in this game is what will the margin of defeat be. And, ignoring everything that has gone over the past three days, what would be a non-embarrassing effort by the Black Caps in this innings.
Ideally I’d like to see Guptill and McIntosh chase down this target before the end of play today. Realistically ideally, I’d like to see a repeat of the heroics against England in the last home test last year, where we scored 431 chasing 550 or so, even if it involves an unbelievable 77 odd from Southee – in fact, especially if. So maybe 450 is the absolute most I could ask for, a margin of less than 200. Realistically and just realistically, I’d like them simply to demonstrate that the first innings collapse was an aberration. Just a decent score on a decent pitch, given that it is late in the test. Something north of 300.
This is now the last chance for several of our batsmen to redeem some fairly middling efforts in the series. Ryder, Taylor, McCullum and Vettori have all acquited themselves very well overall. Guptill, McIntosh, Flynn and Franklin not so much. I would say that a decent series haul would be 200 runs over the 5 innings we have had. To get to that target, we’re looking at 113 or more Guptill, 144 for McIntosh, 91 from Flynn (given that he missed the 2nd test) and 119 from Franklin. Heh. 467 between them. How’s that for high expectations.
April 6th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
As i write this macintosh, flynn and guptil have already let you down.
Crap and ryder out second ball.
Franko gets his chance to deliver on those great expectations.
It’s already looking like a 450+ run defeat.
Good ol’ NZ… build expectations in one match and smash them to all sh1t in the next. NZ cricket supporting at its best.
April 6th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
Now that the the series is almost over, could you give your views on some questions?
a) Is Jeetan Patel really a better spinner than Daniel Vettori? Or is it merely a co-incidental rise/dip is respective forms that makes it appear so? I think it is the latter and that the NZ press is a bit harsh on Vettori.
b) Vettori, the captain, does not appear to think on his feet. eg. NZ bowlers appear to bowl (mostly) spells of predetermined lengths, the workload for into/against the wind spells is evenly distributed for each bowler irrespective of the effectiveness of the bowler at a particular end. Or so it appears on reading IOB’s blog. Dhoni in contrast does not seem to be hamstrung by any such considerations. (I suspect it is getting such small things right which have contributed to his legendary “luck”.
c) The NZ middle order is classy. But does McCullum have to come in after Franklin? Or perhaps I am simply influenced by the one knock of 158 for KKR against my city’s team, BRC, in last year’s IPL.
d) NZ has to find a sound opening combination to enable the middle order to rise to it’s potential. Are the present incumbents prospects for this role or are there any others in FC cricket better suited.
I have enjoyed your blog over the last couple of months, Ben. Thanks.
April 7th, 2009 at 6:34 am
Well, the only real solace I can find is that NZ’s top order is very inexperienced, so they were always likely to find it hard against Zaheer Khan(who is in the form of his life) and Harbhajan Singh.
Guptill seems to have nailed down one spot, though like Ryder in the one-dayers he often looks a million bucks and throws it away before reaching a substantial score. He also needs to work on his technique against spin, but he remains a good prospect. Don’t think I can say the same about McIntosh.
James Franklin doesn’t look totally out of place at no.6 (as the media would have us believe), but his selection for that specific role would have only made sense if NZ had a solid top 5, thus giving him a platform to settle into that position.
Overall, it’s a pity NZ saved their worst for the last test (although a face-saving batting performance is not out of the question yet) but with the sheer difference in class and experience it wasn’t surprising. Basically the side needs to be invited to play a lot more test cricket, perhaps then in two years we’ll see a much more competitive outfit.
April 7th, 2009 at 8:50 pm
Overall, it’s a pity NZ saved their worst for the last test (although a face-saving batting performance is not out of the question yet) but with the sheer difference in class and experience it wasn’t surprising.
Too true Suhas. We were outplayed by a better team. Actually, the final result is much better than I would have predicted.
April 7th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
Now that the the series is almost over, could you give your views on some questions?
Hey adverbin. Thanks for your kind comments and for these questions. I’d like to answer them, though it may take me a while. Perhaps I’ll try to address some of them in future posts.
April 7th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
As i write this macintosh, flynn and guptil have already let you down.
Crap and ryder out second ball.
Franko gets his chance to deliver on those great expectations.
I was going to take a stab at suggesting how many of those guys I would actually want to meet my expectations, but of them did anyway.
Franky did make a good fist of it though. He didn’t get his 50, but he was part of a 142 run partnership without which we might not have lasted day 4.