2 into 7
It might not look like things have changed since the first test, but behind the scenes Sri Lanka has risen to no. 2 in the ICC test rankings. This was due to Australia falling to an embarrassing 4th, rather than Sri Lanka doing anything to push themselves up. But even so, for the no. 7 team, taking on the no. 2 team seems so much more daunting than taking on the no. 3 team.
You wouldn’t quite expect the no. 2 to beat no. 7 in every 2 out of 2 tests. It’s probably more like 1.75 out of every 2 tests. If Sri Lanka win today’s test, they will slightly entrench their no. 2 ranking. Currently both Sri Lanka and India are on 119 points, with Sri Lanka being fractionally higher. A 2-0 series result will bump them to 120 points, pushing them just clear of India.
But if they don’t win, then it is interesting. A draw in this test will actually see Sri Lanka lose points, even though they would have won the series. They will fall to 118 points, into 3rd place. Now, if New Zealand were to win and the series shared, Sri Lanka would fall to 115 points, below Australia, while New Zealand would rise to 86 points (whoa!), actually putting them in 6th place, above Pakistan.

August 28th, 2009 at 5:35 am
Can’t argue with your analysis but there are no great teams out there at the moment.
All teams should be able to compete in tests and we cannot hide behind the rankings!