The task ahead
New Zealand are currently 147/8. Not good. This position is only saved by the fact that we had a 97 run lead after the Pakistan first innings. This gives us a lead of about 250. This isn’t likely to be pushed up by much, so that is the likely target for Pakistan to chase tomorrow.
At home New Zealand have set targets of 250+ 21 times. Most of those have lead to draws. Of the rest, New Zealand have defended the total 6 times and lost 3 times. Which sounds favourable, but a couple of the successful defences included complete cop-outs by the opposition (WI rolled for 77 in ’56 and Eng for 110 in ’08), so should probably be discounted as outliers. The record then is 4-3 and doesn’t look nearly as promising.
Most ominously, a notable example of a team reaching a 250+ target is Pakistan when they last toured in ’03, getting 277/3 in Wellington after NZ lead by 170 going into the 3rd innings.
